Bitcoin, after hitting never-before-seen highs last year, has stalled a bit so far in 2022 – although traders are prepared for “big surprises” this week.
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The price of bitcoin has dropped below $50,000 per bitcoin, down from highs of nearly $70,000 at the end of last year, as Russia’s war on Ukraine sent shockwaves through global markets.
Now, a crypto price forecast has predicted a potential bitcoin price of $1.3 million — calling the gold and bitcoin “upside” “potentially dramatic.”
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“Our emerging market bond investment team has attempted to quantify the emergence of new currency regimes backed by gold or bitcoin,” analysts at investment manager Van Eck wrote in a note this week, pointing to the change in money as a result of “sanctions to the central bank of Russia” which eliminated its dollar, euro and yen reserves.
“The bottom line is that the upside for gold and bitcoin is potentially dramatic. Specifically, the framework estimates gold prices at around $31,000 per ounce and potential Bitcoin prices at around $1.3 million per coin. taller.”
However, note authors Eric Fine, Head of Emerging Markets Active Debt and Natalia Gurushina, Chief Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy Economist at Van Eck, warned that “prices generated in this extreme scenario in which gold or bitcoin become the reserve asset obviously need to be adjusted downwards – they are just a starting point.”
“Cryptocurrency’s upside appears much larger (about 33x) than gold’s (about 16x), although gold is the most direct initial response from central banks in particular,” the analysts wrote. “However, individual actors may be quicker to act.”
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Expectations that countries and central banks could start buying bitcoins and cryptocurrencies have grown in recent months, first triggered by El Salvador’s adoption of bitcoins and later by strict financial sanctions imposed on Russia, which include the launch of the global interbank payments network SWIFT. and much of its seizure of central bank foreign reserves.
In January, Wall Street giant Fidelity predicted that other countries and even a central bank could follow El Salvador into bitcoin this year — saying that those who buy bitcoin while the price is low “will be better competitively than their peers.”
“There is a very high-stakes game theory at play here, whereby if bitcoin adoption increases, countries that guarantee some bitcoins today will be in a better competitive position than their peers,” wrote Fidelity analyst Chris Kuiper. and Jack Neureuter in a note, adding that “I wouldn’t be surprised to see other sovereign nation-states acquire bitcoin in 2022 and perhaps even see a central bank make an acquisition.”