Market diversion can do the trick

  • Bitcoin price creates a case to mark $23,878 upwards.
  • Ethereum price could support 20% of gains if incipient cryptocurrency diversion continues.
  • XRP price appears to outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum with a robust 30% profit forecast.

The price of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies appears to be diverging from global markets this morning after the third recession warning on Wednesday. With commodities still selling on Thursday and equity markets mixed, cryptocurrencies are looking to break the trend and lose the weight of correlation with global market trends. Expect to see possible further decompression, with some gains on the books, as cryptocurrencies are looking for the closest price caps.

Bitcoin price is on the verge of exploding by 20%

Bitcoin (BTC) price sees positive signs of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) emerging as a conversion between cryptocurrencies and global markets is underway. Within the market drift, correlations are broken and cryptocurrencies create room to rise higher. For Bitcoin, this could mean that the RSI would trade at least in the 50 area and seek equilibrium before the correlation with global markets could kick in again.

The BTC price is therefore in a maneuver to pair some losses and look for a limit. Expect that once the significant $22,000 level is broken, another higher leg will be set for a test at $23,878.62. This level dates back to the May 12 knife price drop and coincides with the S1 monthly support level, making it a double threshold to break through.

BTC/USD daily chart

The risk with this market drift is that a massive correction could occur when the correlation returns. The US Dollar this morning is steadily rebounding, but this revaluation is not being fueled by Bitcoin price action. When that correlation comes back, expect a drop to $18,000 and the BTC price is on the verge of printing new lows for 2022.

Ethereum price bears some easy fruits after the shift

The price of Ethereum (ETH) shows the same deviation mentioned above with the price action of Bitcoin. While markets for other asset classes are still moving in the same direction, crypto traders feel that there has not yet been enough decompression for price action. In this case, for Ethereum, the price action needs to pair a few more losses before the bulls have closed enough positions for the bears to reduce the price action.

The ETH price sees the RSI just now bursting above the oversold barrier and could go higher with a ceiling hanging over the price action around $1,243.89. This means that while the Ethereum price has room to move, it seems a bit limited. A break above can be risky as it turns into a bull trap, and the space for the next limit level is too big to cover under current market conditions.

ETH/USD daily chart

ETH/USD daily chart

With limited upside potential in this time frame, the ETH price may see little interest from traders against Bitcoin and XRP, attracting more cash flow. This can be seen by the rejection of $1,243.89 and a complete sell in the price action to $930 in the monthly S2. That would mean another 25% loss added and the ETH price flirting with new lows.

The price of XRP could be on a bullish blast

The price of Ripple (XRP) sees on the RSI that the bulls have already positioned themselves for a higher leg, with the price of XRP being bought alongside $0.32. Bulls being well represented result in XRP price action being sustained, and the only way is up. Expect to see momentum for a breakout trade towards $0.3710. If this market deviation window has more legs, the rally could be sustained towards $0.4228.

The XRP price therefore has two scenarios in front of it to choose from, with the initial target at $0.3710 with 15% gains and the second at $0.4228 which would trigger 30% returns. A weaker dollar could cause the second scenario to materialize depending on supporting elements from global markets. In contrast, if dollar strength persists, only the first target will be met. Checking the market drift will be critical to find out if the bottom elements line up.

XRP/USD daily chart

XRP/USD daily chart

As this is turning out to be yet another volatile week, the detailed scenario can easily change overnight, and the price of XRP can cause investors to flee as quickly as they came. This means that on the cash drain, the price of XRP drops to $0.3043. A more considerable risk to $0.28 may be present if another geopolitical element is thrown into the mix; for example, a Russian counter-attack against Lithuania over Kalinigrad cutting off its supply lines with Russia.


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