Bitcoin (BTC) was stuck in a tight range on June 4 as traders demanded a new macro bearish.
Long-term holders begin ‘distribution’
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC/USD pair hovered between $29,000 and $30,000 over the weekend.
The pair had achieved a renaissance to nearly $31,000 the day before, but the last Wall Street trading session of the week paid off the bulls’ efforts.
As “out of hours” markets offered small volumes but little volatility, eyes were on the potential direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.
“Bitcoin’s weekly chart looks nothing short of ghastly and therefore the continuation of the trend remains. paper of a series of tweets.
ONE more post reiterated a target between $22,000 and $24,000 for Bitcoin once the forecast drop comes to fruition.
“I’m looking for another dip to $24,000-$22,000 but of course distribution takes time. So we could be hovering around these support zones before any dips yet,” it read.
Others were planning to take full advantage of the incoming weakness, including the popular Twitter account Cryptotoad, which announced a strategy of accumulating $27,000 or less in what would be a “swing low” for BTC/USD.
I don’t know what you’re going to do but my plan is to start accumulating my long term position at 27k swing low to 0.382 fib at 21.5k.
— Cryptotoad (@Mesawine1) June 4, 2022
As Cointelegraph reported, other sources eyeing Bitcoin’s lower lows range from on-chain analysts to well-known experts such as former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
Adding fuel to the fire was data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which signaled that long-term holders were starting to shed their stock in a classic bear market move.
“The capitulation phase of long-term holders has begun,” analyst Edris summarized in one of the site’s QuickTake market updates released June 3.
Commenting on a chart of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders, Edris drew comparisons to conditions that preceded generational funds in Bitcoin’s history. These included the 2014 and 2018 bear markets as well as the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.
“Long-term holders are currently entering the capitulation phase and are selling at a loss, indicating that the smart money accumulation phase has begun and the coming months would present a great opportunity to invest in the long-term market,” the post read. .
He noted that this capitulation event “usually marks a multi-year bottom”.
Exchanges still see big buys
In a hint that some were already buying the dip, meanwhile, exchange data showed that outflows were sharply beating inflows in recent days.
Related: Over 200K BTC Now Stored in Bitcoin ETFs and Other Institutional Products
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, as of June 3, net flows from major exchanges totaled -23,286 BTC, the highest since May 14.
Discussing the behavior of long-term holders earlier in the week in the latest issue of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain”, Leading Glassnode analyst Checkmate also outlined classes of investors currently least interested in selling.
Specifically, those who bought near the all-time highs of November 2021 “appear to be relatively price insensitive,” he wrote, adding that the investor profile is increasingly made up of these stubborn hodlers.
“Despite continued price reductions and a major spot liquidation event of over 80K BTC, they remain reluctant to let their coins go,” he added.
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